Who Are the MLB MVP Favorites? Breaking Down the AL and NL Finalists From Judge to Ohtani

The 2024 Major League Baseball season saw some of the greatest individual offensive feats of the last decade. While stars like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani asserted their status as the faces of the game, others like Bobby Witt Jr. and Ketel Marte emerged as names everyone should be paying attention to.

Monday saw the reveal of the three finalists for Most Valuable Player in the American League and National Leagues, and there are compelling cases for each nominee.

Aaron Judge

It was logical to think Aaron Judge would never top his 62-home run campaign of 2022, a year in which he captured his first AL MVP Award. But when it comes to Judge, there is very little logic to explain his feats.

The Yankees outfielder had his best overall season to date in 2024, and is likely to capture his second MVP. Judge checked off all of the traditional metrics en route to leading the Yankees to the World Series: a .322 average, 58 homers, and 144 RBI. But he showed remarkable versatility for his 6-foot-7 frame, hitting .394 on four-seam fastballs and .394 on sinkers.

Judge’s efficiency was a big part of his success in 2024. He notched a career-high Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 10.8, suggesting he was quite literally the most valuable player in the game by adding nearly 11 theoretical wins to the Yankees’ season. He led the league in seven advanced metric categories, including in batting run value and walk percentage. The 32-year-old also made a difficult switch to center field full-time and didn’t have a single error throughout the regular season.

While his postseason numbers left a lot to be desired, only the regular season is accounted for in MVP voting. Judge’s May through September were among the greatest offensive months baseball has ever seen, drawing comparisons to Barry Bonds in terms of pure dominance. Judge is the American League favorite.

Bobby Witt Jr.

In any other year, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is likely your runaway AL MVP. But with Judge’s season in his way, winning the award will be difficult. However, do expect Witt Jr. to receive first-place votes.

And he will most certainly be deserving of them. Witt Jr. was one of the most efficient players in baseball in 2024, ranking in the top 95th percentile of nearly every major advanced metric. He was in the top 99th percentile in batting run average, baserunning value, and fielding range while leading the league in sprint speed and expected batting average.

Witt Jr. won a Gold Glove for his play at shortstop and sported a 9.4 WAR for a Royals team that made an unexpected playoff run. He finished the season with 211 hits, 32 home runs, and a .332 average. While he likely won’t win his first MVP this year, it stands to reason there will be one in the near future.

Juan Soto

Juan Soto’s first (and possibly only) season in the Bronx was electric in every way, as he flipped the entire dynamic of the Yankees’ offense and sent them to their first World Series since 2009. It was also the most efficient season of his entire career.

Soto benefitted greatly from hitting in front of Judge in the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He hit .288 with 41 homers and hit the ball harder than he ever has in his career with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity. Soto made pitchers pay for nearly every mistake, with 31 of his 41 home runs coming off of fastballs, a testament to his plate discipline and pitch selection. Even though he had several defensive miscues throughout the season, his arm adjusted for some of his shortcomings, helping him earn a Gold Glove nomination in right field.

The free agent finished 2024 with his highest career WAR at 7.9, a career-high 166 hits, and is poised to make between $600 million and $700 million this offseason as a result of his play.

Shohei Ohtani

The Los Angeles Dodgers expected quite a bit in return for their $700 million investment in Shohei Ohtani last offseason. What they got out of him in 2024 may have even exceeded those expectations.

Ohtani was unable to pitch this season as he recovered from an arm injury, so he leveled all of his efforts into his offensive game. He rewarded the Dodgers’ patience with one of the greatest National League offensive campaigns ever, as Ohtani became the first man to secure more than fifty home runs and stolen bases in a season (finishing with 54 and 59, respectively). The designated hitter notched a .310 average along with 130 RBI, finishing with a career-high 9.2 WAR.

Sure, Ohtani benefitted from hitting in one of the most feared Dodgers lineups in franchise history, but that was the point of signing there, no? The two-time AL MVP hit .283 with runners in scoring position in 2024 and .417 with the bases loaded. He is poised to add his third MVP trophy to his Hall of Fame resume. If he does, he’ll become just the second player in baseball history to win an MVP in both leagues, following Frank Robinson.

Francisco Lindor

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor was hitting just .197 through the first 29 games of the season. The Mets were in a nosedive come May 18, and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza made a decision that would alter New York’s season by moving Lindor to the leadoff spot in the lineup.

Lindor took to the role perfectly. He hit .303 from the leadoff spot the rest of the season, finishing the season with 33 home runs and serving as the perfect tablesetter for a rejuvenated Mets lineup. Lindor was robbed of a Gold Glove nomination in 2024, as his fielding range was among Major League Baseball’s best. The 30-year-old also proved to be incredibly clutch in pushing the Mets from the cellar to a playoff position, with his go-ahead ninth-inning homer on the final day of the season against the Braves clinching their postseason spot.

Lindor has never won an MVP Award, and though he may fall short this year, his late-season push was remarkable.

Ketel Marte

Though the American League candidates for MVP are overall stronger this year, take nothing away from Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte’s season. Marte was fantastic in his follow-up to Arizona’s 2023 World Series campaign and proved he is one of the best middle infielders in the game.

The 2024 All-Star smacked a career-high 36 home runs to go along with a .932 OPS, the second-highest of his playing days. Marte was one of the most efficient hitters in baseball this past season, ranking in the top 96th percentile or higher in six major Statcast categories. He also exhibited tremendous range in the field, becoming one of baseball’s best second basemen.

Marte isn’t likely to command any first-place votes, but his 2024 season was similar to his 2019 season, one where he finished fourth in MVP voting.

Final Predictions

Expect Aaron Judge to walk away with his second AL MVP Award, while Shohei Ohtani will likely win his third. Neither will be unanimous, with both Witt Jr. and Lindor picking up first-place votes.